NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e12e993547bd263b7cb8738e8ee5b322801248354e822de34f262d7b46d621d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Under | 52c | 42,198$22,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,136.05 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 16,808$7,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,856.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 13,295$6,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,882.23 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 8,153$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,275.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 49c | 5,094$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.88 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 4,999$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.48 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 3,785$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.2 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 53c | 2,258$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.24 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 2,016$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 1,572$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.44 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,404$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 1,392$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.84 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 1,191$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.49 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.8 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 359.92$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.16 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 47c | 247.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 236.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 33c | 162.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…2633backed Under | 53c | 137.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked Over | 52c | 124.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 91.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…6170backed Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b0…abdabacked Over | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 28.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…54d1backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Under | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.