NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311bed46518b2d7c4c53f4838a93f2cba64a91e8b24e9abf422261d30d1d735d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 34,448$18,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,120.25 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 16,626$7,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,225.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 15,325$6,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,398.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060e…2384backed Under | 60c | 14,023$8,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,412.61 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Under | 52c | 7,158$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,722.1 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 6,228$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,295.24 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 5,038$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 46c | 5,032$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.2 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Over | 48c | 2,080$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.6 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 1,500$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 1,187$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.39 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 837$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 48c | 715$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 665.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Under | 6c | 603.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 559$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.27 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…e5b6backed Under | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 47c | 414.89$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 396.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.53 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…2220backed Over | 48c | 334.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 311.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 221.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 55c | 196.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 42c | 188$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…d083backed Under | 44c | 136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 48c | 134.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 124.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 32c | 123.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 122.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 120.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 49c | 113.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 46c | 112.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 70c | 109$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 104.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 84.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Under | 53c | 83.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Under | 53c | 71.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 63.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…0dd5backed Over | 47c | 49.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 53c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Over | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…d8adbacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 47c | 27.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 26.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.