TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Nuggets, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards53c7,660$4,077 inWon+$3,583.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets47c5,955$2,799 inLost-$2,798.723,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets48c2,979$1,427 inLost-$1,426.652,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards51c1,986$1,013 inWon+$972.783,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets46c859.17$392 inLost-$392.52,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets51c499.26$256 inLost-$255.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Wizards48c474$228 inWon+$246.4825840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nuggets48c355.51$171 inLost-$170.6411242%47 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wizards50c240.74$120 inWon+$120.372,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Wizards52c200$104 inWon+$9695548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Nuggets48c200$96 inLost-$9635749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f5…54d1backed Wizards54c186.04$101 inWon+$85.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets50c159$79 inLost-$79.473,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards50c100$50 inWon+$502,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Wizards54c74.07$40 inWon+$34.0782440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Wizards52c70$36 inWon+$33.664139%250 W · 391 L+2.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets48c64.71$31 inLost-$31.062,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcecc…affebacked Wizards53c62.26$33 inWon+$29.263647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Nuggets48c60.42$29 inLost-$291,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Wizards54c46.3$25 inWon+$21.33531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.8wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Nuggets47c42.55$20 inLost-$2024248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Wizards48c32$15 inWon+$16.5688845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Wizards52c25$13 inWon+$121,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Wizards50c20$10 inWon+$1043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.