TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Marlins, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,873 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x461f…7a07backed Marlins44c58,169$25,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,517.8812043.3%52 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…005fbacked Guardians56c57,714$32,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,274.72176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5465…ca9bbacked Marlins78c44,849$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,849.17757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Guardians21c41,505$8,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,760.0454345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians22c27,390$6,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,110.41,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Guardians30c11,741$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,481.0938751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Guardians55c9,392$5,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,165.5925453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Guardians23c9,080$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.9838444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians21c5,676$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.882,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians21c5,156$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.39,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Marlins44c4,607$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.779255.4%51 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Marlins45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.4419649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians55c3,679$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.672,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Guardians56c3,568$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcab0…4cd3backed Guardians27c3,568$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.539447.9%45 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Marlins45c3,567$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.9899149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Guardians55c3,535$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.2439456.9%224 W · 170 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Marlins72c3,120$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.6125551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Guardians24c2,739$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.828042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Marlins78c2,396$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2211051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Guardians24c2,293$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.943946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Guardians31c2,209$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9741643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Marlins45c1,703$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.5438949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Guardians55c1,638$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.531,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Guardians24c1,555$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.725454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Marlins44c1,126$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.5623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Guardians2c1,037$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Marlins42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Marlins45c994.53$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.9919449%95 W · 99 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians21c972$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.126,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Marlins44c899.98$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.9950843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Guardians25c870$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.526650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Marlins45c851.11$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.113756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Marlins44c819.99$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.1924547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians15c750$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11576456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed Marlins44c743.46$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.343470.6%24 W · 10 L+7.7wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+42.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Marlins80c725.94$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.943060%18 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df7…baefbacked Guardians56c714.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Guardians35c635.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5673149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Guardians56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3219…4f05backed Marlins45c550$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.53053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Marlins44c540.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.9644443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins68c519.27$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2380680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Marlins45c514.91$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.216654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Guardians56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28017243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Marlins45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27595930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Guardians30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15051953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Marlins45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Marlins65c455.25$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.71,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Marlins44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5556351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Guardians54c450$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24324450%122 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Guardians56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Marlins45c428.8$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8414949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Guardians22c422.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3132754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Marlins45c416.03$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8251347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Guardians28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0912…9a36backed Guardians56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Guardians33c358.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.449151.6%47 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd805…0d78backed Guardians56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Guardians56c357$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.921,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Guardians56c346.86$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…8014backed Marlins79c336.44$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.09366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Marlins45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.331,21540.5%492 W · 723 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Marlins76c301.29$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411959.7%71 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Marlins46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16283248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins45c299.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Marlins44c299.98$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9930850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Marlins45c298.89$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.396953.6%37 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Guardians24c277.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4660052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Marlins43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5618236.3%66 W · 116 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Guardians55c219.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc352…51e3backed Marlins46c219.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.733762.2%23 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Guardians55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12099951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Marlins70c215.71$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.711,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins60c201.43$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.924,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Guardians55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Guardians31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6218148.6%88 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marlins44c199.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.992,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51a1…1467backed Guardians25c193.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.57328.8%21 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Guardians56c193.32$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.261,05550.3%531 W · 524 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Guardians27c183.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5510459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,39655.2%770 W · 626 L-28.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians27c175.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4680955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Guardians55c157.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.421,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Guardians56c151.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Marlins44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8466751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Guardians42c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.39246.7%43 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Marlins56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6634051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…088bbacked Guardians55c146.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.62955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4354…571fbacked Guardians55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013456.7%76 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Guardians19c137.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9631547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Marlins46c134.68$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7312152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins78c127.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Guardians22c124.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x534e…ecfebacked Guardians24c118.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8327458.8%161 W · 113 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.