Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f23855c855e111bbc79812402587f924c8bb211cbee3d00e6479ec2a7bc11c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 1,223$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 48c | 565.51$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 282.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 54c | 176.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 169.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 35c | 150.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 38c | 139.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 71c | 129.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 124.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 116.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 41c | 115.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 107.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 103.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 68c | 103.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 27c | 98.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 52c | 97.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 76.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 74.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 61c | 72.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 69.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 68.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 62.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 40c | 62.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 61.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 51c | 58.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 57.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 62c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 74c | 54.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 62c | 48.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 46.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 45.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 45.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 42.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 47c | 42.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 53c | 34.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 61c | 32.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 30.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 29.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 29.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 60c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 55c | 20.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…a0c7backed No | 61c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 64c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.