TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof AM Gaming, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x89dd…f662backed ex-RUBY59c52,174$30,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,461.486940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY60c41,756$24,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,757.25,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked AM Gaming42c25,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.9277052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…e601backed AM Gaming41c20,247$8,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,301.111241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed AM Gaming40c17,432$7,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,056.4714051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked AM Gaming40c12,812$5,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,101.5814050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed AM Gaming39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90017951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed ex-RUBY58c6,500$3,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7309551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed AM Gaming41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0502737%10 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff93…1239backed AM Gaming41c4,678$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab9…d821backed AM Gaming42c3,540$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.784055%22 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-RUBY58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47067951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked AM Gaming39c2,575$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.086243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed AM Gaming38c2,246$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.021,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked AM Gaming41c2,219$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.722347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked AM Gaming41c2,200$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9022642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked AM Gaming39c2,017$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.6928440.5%115 W · 169 L-17.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed AM Gaming38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.995464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed AM Gaming40c1,753$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.776445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed AM Gaming40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed AM Gaming40c1,750$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.511849.2%58 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUBY60c1,676$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.772,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed AM Gaming40c1,362$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.037140.8%29 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa1…bf72backed AM Gaming41c1,281$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed ex-RUBY60c1,250$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.520750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked AM Gaming32c1,230$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.055,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed AM Gaming39c1,187$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.0215052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ex-RUBY60c1,100$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44026154.4%142 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed AM Gaming39c1,087$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6349935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab3…c3eabacked AM Gaming40c1,065$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfe…5bdabacked ex-RUBY62c1,013$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed AM Gaming42c1,007$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9357641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed AM Gaming41c1,000$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4116346.6%76 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x531c…b0a6backed ex-RUBY60c963$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe4c…b380backed AM Gaming39c902.05$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed AM Gaming39c890$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.159841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa573…3987backed AM Gaming42c827.49$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.134738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked AM Gaming42c826$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed AM Gaming38c808.55$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.259435.1%33 W · 61 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed AM Gaming21c794.84$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.326,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed ex-RUBY57c762.75$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9811349.6%56 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed AM Gaming40c747.09$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29617948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-RUBY60c717.64$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.094,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed AM Gaming41c716$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29482142.5%349 W · 472 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed AM Gaming41c685$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3521744.7%97 W · 120 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked ex-RUBY60c670$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26842050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed AM Gaming43c657.15$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5759049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked AM Gaming39c656.27$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4227954.1%151 W · 128 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed AM Gaming39c649.57$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2217445.4%79 W · 95 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked AM Gaming40c634.13$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6552936.3%192 W · 337 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x607b…b839backed AM Gaming41c619$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.79850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0acb…05c2backed AM Gaming41c617$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.971070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed AM Gaming41c607.43$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8161654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed AM Gaming41c580.92$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.846343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed ex-RUBY61c573.77$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7761055.9%341 W · 269 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ex-RUBY61c573.76$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7747655%262 W · 214 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ex-RUBY70c562.18$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.712,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked AM Gaming40c560.81$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.326040%24 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…9bf5backed AM Gaming41c558$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.782860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked AM Gaming43c554.4$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6235947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed ex-RUBY60c528.4$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.3626650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked AM Gaming38c525$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.56744.8%30 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acc…8fe0backed AM Gaming39c517.1$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.671154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b25…ff39backed ex-RUBY58c515.51$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.512045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed AM Gaming40c515.15$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.213738.7%53 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked AM Gaming39c512$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.272,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked AM Gaming39c511.7$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9647047.9%225 W · 245 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked ex-RUBY60c501$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.43455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked ex-RUBY58c501$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.423461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked AM Gaming39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed AM Gaming41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed ex-RUBY79c499.97$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.992254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed AM Gaming44c490.11$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed AM Gaming42c484.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.695,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed AM Gaming41c480.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8919940.7%81 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed AM Gaming39c464.38$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.422044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked AM Gaming12c457.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.44,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff0…c7aabacked ex-RUBY60c455.75$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.31080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x765a…5ce4backed ex-RUBY60c410$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16414949%73 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked ex-RUBY61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15632352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY57c399.93$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.292,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed AM Gaming39c398.82$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6838839.4%153 W · 235 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9558…9579backed ex-RUBY61c394.49$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.796240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked AM Gaming39c389.5$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1912846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed AM Gaming37c376.11$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.83647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked AM Gaming42c360$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.27736.4%28 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdca5…4342backed ex-RUBY60c350$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1412454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed AM Gaming40c345.98$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3915349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed AM Gaming39c338.31$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3323732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed ex-RUBY62c338$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.947951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked AM Gaming32c334.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.617,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked AM Gaming39c330.77$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12936145.4%164 W · 197 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed AM Gaming39c322.8$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.812533.6%42 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked AM Gaming39c305.13$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910137.6%38 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed AM Gaming39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175740.4%23 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked AM Gaming41c299.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12292145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed AM Gaming23c296$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4710650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed ex-RUBY60c285.85$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2837855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked ex-RUBY60c285.07$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4474653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed ex-RUBY74c283.14$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.564926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.