World Politics · resolved market
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554542102403f12796b0f8b519adbcd966c12f7ec6652392ef78fb653de4f7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 1c | 2,130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…7f7fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c3e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 17c | 722$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…4839backed Yes | 5c | 463.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 20c | 391$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2848…5acebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…a7a9backed Yes | 38c | 292.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…9043backed No | 71c | 257.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…f21abacked Yes | 12c | 218.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 8c | 194$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 25c | 179.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 175.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…834abacked Yes | 25c | 168.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 30c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…7c9abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Yes | 34c | 97.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 76.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 31c | 76.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809b…afc5backed Yes | 25c | 59.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 36c | 54.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 40c | 50.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…3c8ebacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab2…a438backed Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…ab37backed No | 72c | 43.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…09bebacked No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…2101backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 59c | 29.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…e909backed No | 60c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…e7e6backed No | 60c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?this page
- Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?Yes won
- Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will Podemos Perú (PP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.