TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOUDof Fluxo W7M, LOUD
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Fluxo W7M49c33,127$16,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,279.3422451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Fluxo W7M45c20,000$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,899.944450%22 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fluxo W7M32c13,063$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,175.841,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked Fluxo W7M46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.967440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Fluxo W7M45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed LOUD55c9,196$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,176.639941.4%41 W · 58 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed LOUD59c8,236$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,402.7530546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed LOUD55c8,012$4,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.1711367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LOUD50c7,640$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.861,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked LOUD53c6,000$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.0153355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked LOUD50c5,600$2,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.511,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LOUD56c5,600$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.752,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked LOUD56c5,099$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.091,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Fluxo W7M48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9864155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed LOUD53c4,727$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.271,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LOUD64c4,370$2,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.961,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Fluxo W7M47c3,805$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.3596048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Fluxo W7M46c3,592$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.721,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed LOUD54c3,324$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.41,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed LOUD55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.991,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed LOUD52c2,942$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.212,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…90f3backed Fluxo W7M48c2,645$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.796558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed LOUD56c2,641$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.8312454%67 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Fluxo W7M45c2,528$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.171,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed Fluxo W7M44c2,453$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.414151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed LOUD63c2,345$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.4445248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked LOUD52c2,286$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.9214552.4%76 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed LOUD54c2,195$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.0834255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed LOUD55c2,046$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.611,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Fluxo W7M45c2,010$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.541,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Fluxo W7M45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.991,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Fluxo W7M37c1,942$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.921,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed LOUD54c1,931$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.2664247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M33c1,832$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.291,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed LOUD51c1,594$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.5234658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed LOUD55c1,528$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.775547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Fluxo W7M46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed LOUD54c1,497$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.181,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed LOUD55c1,455$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.5526349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Fluxo W7M30c1,450$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2644846.2%207 W · 241 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed LOUD72c1,441$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.1960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked LOUD59c1,428$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.366559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed LOUD53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56428448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed LOUD52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8523053.9%124 W · 106 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed LOUD64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7526661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed LOUD60c1,087$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.4463742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed LOUD57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.631,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed LOUD55c1,030$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.521350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M42c994.78$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.982,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LOUD59c988.65$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.141,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Fluxo W7M46c987.08$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.061,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked LOUD54c920$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.21,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LOUD57c865.08$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3898956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc3…f82dbacked Fluxo W7M50c862.32$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.163262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed LOUD52c851.01$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.986251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf071…04d6backed Fluxo W7M37c839.99$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.813336.8%49 W · 84 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Fluxo W7M18c828.79$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.811,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Fluxo W7M45c791.24$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.591,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked LOUD67c784.12$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.761,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked LOUD50c703$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.535659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fluxo W7M26c698.21$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.92,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked LOUD55c677.46$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8624535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Fluxo W7M46c673$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.581,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed LOUD62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.1615857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed LOUD67c637$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2118061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Fluxo W7M35c582.67$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9424137.8%91 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Fluxo W7M45c556$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.21,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a28…ff8cbacked LOUD54c554.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5512246.7%57 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed LOUD55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4524658.5%144 W · 102 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fluxo W7M41c544$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.123,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed LOUD56c539.63$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.8934340.5%139 W · 204 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked Fluxo W7M39c512.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…3ab3backed LOUD54c511.77$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.417027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked LOUD50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2509658.3%56 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed LOUD55c440$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19848763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Fluxo W7M46c433.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked LOUD54c405.25$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3760347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked LOUD51c400.59$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.1585742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked LOUD54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18413456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaf7…be9bbacked Fluxo W7M46c386.92$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.118844.7%84 W · 104 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed LOUD59c374.12$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.1239861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked LOUD56c373$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.582,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed LOUD54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3780150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed LOUD55c365.45$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.453969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a9d…6c84backed Fluxo W7M12c361.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8934438.7%133 W · 211 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed LOUD56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1477746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed LOUD57c350.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8731150.2%156 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09b…d784backed Fluxo W7M45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3feb…7dfbbacked LOUD65c333$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.555123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e9…80c7backed LOUD52c326.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9211146.8%52 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Fluxo W7M33c318.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4653545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Fluxo W7M51c313$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6366845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Fluxo W7M37c312$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4440446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bee…ee2abacked LOUD56c310$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2817445.4%79 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked LOUD55c304$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.823152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed LOUD60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Fluxo W7M47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d02…0ff3backed Fluxo W7M47c300$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.222259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Fluxo W7M37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11295048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Fluxo W7M40c297.37$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2129637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.