TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,748

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,170 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes69c1,121$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.637347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes43c1,115$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.671,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed No41c470.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3927328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c356.97$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No4c318$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c304.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.33,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c245.89$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No46c210.25$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe092…dbb3backed No6c210$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c204.8$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c197.58$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes48c193.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.781,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes56c172.39$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5634050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes79c172.05$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7611069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No63c167.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c154.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No48c152.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7254…39c0backed Yes55c150.23$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb280…daefbacked No73c139.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-65.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes71c139.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8929748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c134$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.042,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c129.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes38c119.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0415843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed No44c103.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9411041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb94a…d680backed No69c88.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8512348%59 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes50c87.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.11,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb69…06a9backed No59c84.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014252.1%74 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No44c83.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.854751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c80.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.835,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No28c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No61c74.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0148261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0d…7a8fbacked Yes30c67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No67c65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No44c64.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No70c63.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7622550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked No79c63.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…1bcebacked Yes30c57.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.597100%7 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+93.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes55c57.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.919427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No24c56.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked Yes46c56.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5310653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes52c55.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.461,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No59c53.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57660.5%46 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.399,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ea…4f55backed No70c52.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.09862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked No24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124663%29 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes50c49.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0864460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes34c47.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.845135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes40c45.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.545738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No39c44.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3229751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bc…008abacked No65c44.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.789758.8%57 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336e…bcc3backed Yes45c44.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.534746.8%22 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaeac…e20bbacked No70c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.830%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes57c43.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.965151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes46c42.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9314745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes64c41.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.31,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.616339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No53c37.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.151,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No61c37.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No31c35.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c34.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes50c34.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.136160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0e…8337backed Yes44c34.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.023537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed No45c31.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.386355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c31.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.561,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes34c30.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.441030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x364a…4363backed No66c30.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.856863.2%43 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No44c29.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No65c29.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No69c28.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfe…f6e9backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No75c26.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No69c25.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No42c24.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.159262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No65c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No65c23.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No66c22.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a9…4182backed No66c22.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.729260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c21.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No63c21.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.617869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.453353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6390…9bf0backed No69c19.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.665154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked No64c19.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1812052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No70c14.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0724768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.