Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d8abbd7a4cb6467ba13cf3b6509596975c38ddec0ee80eda9a3ac30a76c11e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 69c | 1,121$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.63 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 43c | 1,115$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.67 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 41c | 470.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 356.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 4c | 318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 304.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 245.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 46c | 210.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 204.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 197.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 193.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 56c | 172.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 79c | 172.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 63c | 167.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 154.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 152.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…39c0backed Yes | 55c | 150.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 71c | 139.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 134$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 129.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 44c | 103.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 69c | 88.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 50c | 87.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 59c | 84.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 44c | 83.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 80.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 61c | 74.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…7a8fbacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 64.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 70c | 63.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 79c | 63.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…1bcebacked Yes | 30c | 57.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 55c | 57.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 24c | 56.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 46c | 56.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 55.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 59c | 53.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…4f55backed No | 70c | 52.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 50c | 49.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 34c | 47.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 40c | 45.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 39c | 44.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 45c | 44.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaeac…e20bbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 57c | 43.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 42.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 41.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 37.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 37.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 34.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 50c | 34.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 44c | 34.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 45c | 31.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 31.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 34c | 30.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 44c | 29.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 29.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…f6e9backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 25.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 24.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 66c | 22.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 21.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 63c | 21.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 69c | 19.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 64c | 19.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.