TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,827,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,856,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,827,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Raptors45c592,854$267,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325,244.648022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Hawks55c483,583$265,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265,970.547745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Hawks55c100,573$55,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,3151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed Raptors45c100,150$45,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,082.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Raptors44c94,260$41,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,785.798843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hawks61c87,140$53,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,346.4147448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hawks39c80,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Raptors46c33,474$15,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,235.2785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Hawks56c28,588$16,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,009.387255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Raptors44c28,000$12,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,6806253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hawks56c27,503$15,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,401.5870147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Hawks55c26,297$14,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,463.466746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Hawks55c25,545$14,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,049.752626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e22…98d4backed Hawks55c25,500$14,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,02520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b4…6a4dbacked Raptors45c25,500$11,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,0252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks54c22,759$12,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,330.282,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Hawks55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000.0159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Raptors34c20,000$6,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,163.872748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hawks49c18,274$8,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,918.8226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Hawks55c18,182$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Hawks49c16,000$7,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,790.1620352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hawks5c15,946$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.2119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks54c15,426$8,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,329.811,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Hawks56c15,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Hawks19c14,447$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.5936148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks54c14,313$7,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,683.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Hawks53c13,920$7,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,377.712665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks56c13,818$7,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,725.122,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15e…2a61backed Hawks77c13,200$10,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,16410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f88…7dd1backed Raptors23c13,200$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1641100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Raptors45c13,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,15012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Raptors16c12,200$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2484037.5%15 W · 25 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+241.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raptors34c11,985$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,874.6847144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Raptors45c11,052$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,058.212759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Hawks52c10,132$5,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,268.6313455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed Hawks0c10,063$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.892544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Raptors51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90047751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Hawks54c9,434$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,094.6138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd5…b91fbacked Hawks75c9,100$6,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,82510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf84…d0a0backed Raptors25c9,100$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Raptors48c8,888$4,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,621.767748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Raptors52c7,928$4,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,832.37255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146f…7cd0backed Hawks51c6,151$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddca…536cbacked Raptors49c6,143$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks52c6,078$3,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,154.4174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks55c5,800$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1902,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Raptors45c5,596$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,096.584553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Raptors44c5,593$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,131.925442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks55c5,456$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.63,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks49c5,417$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raptors46c5,370$2,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.982,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors26c5,180$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,829.61,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks52c5,000$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.791,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Raptors49c4,843$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.515055.3%83 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawks61c4,570$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.741,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Hawks54c4,507$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.5648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Hawks54c4,384$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.3178445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors45c4,179$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.7876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f22…61eabacked Hawks56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb2…f1f0backed Raptors45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks54c3,664$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.9941848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Hawks48c3,599$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.5222752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raptors41c3,542$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.1281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Raptors45c3,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.9647748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors46c3,438$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks58c3,420$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.472,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Raptors46c3,352$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.176435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Raptors52c3,212$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.546256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Raptors45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8abd…a8c8backed Raptors45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Raptors44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9912657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9876249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Hawks55c2,783$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.097739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks55c2,540$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.1671052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Hawks55c2,220$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.9830351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Raptors45c2,200$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.9561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Raptors31c2,185$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.538151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Raptors46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.9110852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Raptors46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.912250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Raptors45c2,150$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.4962351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…becdbacked Raptors48c2,131$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98bd…b657backed Raptors48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0924100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x672f…81ddbacked Hawks52c2,100$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Hawks55c2,071$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.11,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Hawks54c2,069$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.231,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b83…4e6dbacked Raptors48c2,069$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Raptors52c2,052$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.4317250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors46c2,052$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.62,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…99b3backed Raptors48c2,050$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159b…b932backed Hawks52c2,050$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec2…357abacked Hawks53c2,015$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Raptors34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Hawks55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd76e…225bbacked Raptors46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Raptors49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceee…9ae0backed Hawks55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8408…0a24backed Hawks53c1,981$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbcb…604abacked Hawks53c1,975$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.