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MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Reds, Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x762e…4bf0backed Royals54c41,491$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50025151.8%130 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds46c14,013$6,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,611.581,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds46c8,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3201,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Royals52c6,400$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,327.9521941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds47c6,380$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,379.742,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Reds45c4,510$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Reds48c4,296$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2311,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds48c3,575$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.231,35950.8%690 W · 669 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Royals51c2,590$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.817351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Reds49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27525550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Royals1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512314.6%18 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Reds53c2,202$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.9579740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Royals7c2,015$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2016…b4bebacked Royals50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Royals53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Royals52c1,671$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.7739041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Reds48c1,611$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.5760249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds63c1,590$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.6421356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Reds61c1,469$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.419,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Royals52c1,460$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.22445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds48c1,460$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds45c1,449$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.4997950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Reds46c1,304$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.1673352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Reds55c1,239$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.2814047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Royals52c1,022$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.5313353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Reds51c1,019$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.1976456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaae…8a95backed Royals53c1,007$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.712166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd7…0356backed Reds47c989.99$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.692152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds53c952.65$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.692,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Reds47c849.99$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.4920450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Royals5c745$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Royals10c705.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4941643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Royals52c639.81$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.799549.9%497 W · 498 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca2…55e4backed Reds76c453.14$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.067154.9%39 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Royals29c437$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.286132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Reds47c423.69$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.565,23556.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L+130.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds75c413$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.721,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Royals53c411.98$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3515949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Royals6c401.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.15053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…9ad0backed Royals51c368.12$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.694652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Reds46c303.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.868656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals43c300.01$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13063942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Royals10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Royals5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9238741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Reds48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Royals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe128…243fbacked Royals8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Reds48c187$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.244546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Royals55c181.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Reds56c178.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4621853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Royals53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Royals10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Reds53c112.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6943250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea51…55bebacked Reds48c109.25$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+43.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x953f…e730backed Reds49c107.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…54e5backed Reds49c105.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Reds48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1713254.5%72 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a3…5642backed Royals53c103.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…b15ebacked Royals52c102.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6f…0142backed Reds49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0412549.6%62 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c4…ae60backed Reds49c101.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aad…2cbbbacked Royals52c101.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5293240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…cc6dbacked Royals52c98.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3a…d650backed Reds49c91.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Royals27c90.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x959f…31b9backed Royals52c87.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Royals38c82.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3641747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Royals53c80.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.728053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a95…9bbbbacked Reds56c79.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.853658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Reds48c71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9265549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Royals52c69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8851955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb58d…818ebacked Reds52c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.94146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Reds48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.216347.2%77 W · 86 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Reds47c59.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7941649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Reds49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0294455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0624…017dbacked Royals52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526651.1%136 W · 130 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a9…e358backed Reds49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e7e…54ddbacked Reds49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf391…73c3backed Reds49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8229552.2%154 W · 141 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b5…c1cebacked Reds49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.829157.1%52 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2a…7bb2backed Reds49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb97…add3backed Royals54c34.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.897142.3%30 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Royals54c33.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818951.3%97 W · 92 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Reds48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2515949.1%78 W · 81 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Royals53c28.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0217930.2%54 W · 125 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bc5…2941backed Royals56c27.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3850%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals53c23.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712,05853.8%1,107 W · 951 L+33.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Reds47c21.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1a…ccb1backed Reds48c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Reds54c20.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2754441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.