World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x569797d12073ce84f9ae289bf4312a8391cdcf87ef7fbd2a333e0a64194f569d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,179$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 958.44$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 647.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 428.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 428.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 9c | 356.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 11c | 351.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 9c | 345.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 317.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 282.19$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 265$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 9c | 243.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 243.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 10c | 241.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 20c | 234.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 226.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 15c | 200.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 195.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 14c | 177$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 176.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 150.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 138.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 11c | 137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 127.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 24c | 123.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 39c | 121.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 22c | 109.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 41c | 107.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 103.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 35c | 83.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 19c | 77.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 14c | 74.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 73.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 73.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed Yes | 40c | 65.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 40c | 64.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 63.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 58.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 56.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 37.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 33c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 70c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 26.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 77c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.