World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e3e8eb01344207f428f382463339902d9f91f6f1f1a5bebde0137e3e6cb7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 1,325$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.75 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 595.4$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.09 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 350$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 37c | 299.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 270.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 257.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 257.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 255.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 247.14$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 19c | 240.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 231.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 219.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 215.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 209.25$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 42c | 186.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 182.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 177.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 156$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 155$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 151.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 149.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 147.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 147.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 145.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 141.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 134.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes | 44c | 132.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 43c | 127.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 125.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 124.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 123.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 119.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 115.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 110.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 104.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 35c | 103.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 103$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 102.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 100.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 100.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 42c | 100.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 97.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 42c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 42c | 87.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 36c | 86.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 82.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 48c | 82.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 82.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 81.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 81.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 79.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 77.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 43c | 75.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 75.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c88bbacked No | 57c | 74.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 70.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 68.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 33c | 67.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 46c | 65.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 65.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 45c | 62.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 36c | 61.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 55.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 37c | 51.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…ad08backed Yes | 31c | 49.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 34c | 49.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 36c | 48.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 48.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 47.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 54c | 46.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 46.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 42.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked No | 59c | 41.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 41.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 65c | 40.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 66c | 38.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 44c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.