World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec6bc3f1d0a9165113b7dc1332ac699a43ee38dc6729a9da1246432ad066e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 2,387$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.29 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 36c | 1,623$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.69 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 74c | 945.42$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 543.96$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.96 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 484.22$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 46c | 370.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 39c | 345.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 321.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 23c | 316.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 307.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 273.77$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 271.58$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 250.75$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 218.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 43c | 211.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 201.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 50c | 200.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 52c | 192.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 189.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 188.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 9c | 184.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 10c | 184.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 174.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 26c | 164.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 158.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 153.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 148.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebfa…b54ebacked No | 69c | 144.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 27c | 134.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 130.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 60c | 123.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 123.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 115.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 110.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 47c | 109.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 76c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 107.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 102.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 102.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 100.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 98.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 97.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 17c | 96.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 94.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 89.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 15c | 88.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 87.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 85.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 14c | 84.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 60c | 81.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 38c | 80.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 78.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 77.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 77.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 76.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 76.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 73.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 30c | 72.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 49c | 67.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 58c | 65.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 41c | 62.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 60.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 59.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 57.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 56.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 51.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 49c | 51.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 51.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 41c | 46.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 27c | 43.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 66c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 38.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 44c | 37.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 65c | 35.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…ad08backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 34.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 63c | 32.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed Yes | 46c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 63c | 30.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.