Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56af7fe39230b2b6aa9519e7d896c7ff5a85e61e2413369d5ee066ae41460eb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 1,481$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,149$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.82 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 819.02$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 2c | 426.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 6c | 416.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 404.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 372.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 4c | 312.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.55 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.6 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 29c | 299.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 291.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 277.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 28c | 269.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.96 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 269.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 37c | 225.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 199.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 54c | 189.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 177.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 146.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 29c | 137.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 67c | 126.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 20c | 125.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 92.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 21c | 80.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 35c | 76.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 69.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 68.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 26c | 66.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 56.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 47c | 55.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 49c | 54.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 72c | 48.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 52c | 45.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 29c | 41.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 35.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…59dabacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 27.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 27.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 60c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.