Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604b3088cdd05d617afaad8358f08fbc946a3a6d3590983a41ed7bfdacd30a72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa94e…e152backed Yes | 0c | 4,239$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 78c | 951.98$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 787.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 18c | 733.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 64c | 456.51$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 49c | 430.51$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 13c | 412$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 399.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 391.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 308.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 303.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 285.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 32c | 222.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 12c | 206.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.79 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 200.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 16c | 200.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 181.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 180$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 129$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 72c | 61.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 75c | 58.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 54.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 47.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 41c | 45.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 75c | 40.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 46c | 35.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 29.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed Yes | 42c | 28.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 72c | 23.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 73c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.