Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2d926763742469629f0105c49406332af71f6ce72e387dfb591374406fee25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,212$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 1,187$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.69 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 949.95$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 540.09$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 13c | 525.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 17c | 507.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 446.09$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 75c | 440$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 390.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 48c | 360.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.27 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 11c | 331.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 291.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 264$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 52c | 222.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 31c | 216$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 77c | 215.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 25c | 210.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 15c | 207.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 201.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 198.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 53c | 173.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 60c | 157.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 52c | 151.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 131.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 28c | 123.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 119.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 33c | 108.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 105.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…b070backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 50c | 98.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 94.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 61c | 91.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed No | 39c | 87.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 66c | 82.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 30c | 77.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 61c | 74.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 73.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 34c | 71.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 67.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 63.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked No | 56c | 56.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 56.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…35abbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 60c | 39.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 37.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked No | 45c | 36.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed No | 36c | 35.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 31.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 56c | 29.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed No | 53c | 27.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…9ebebacked Yes | 60c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 60c | 16.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.