Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572d463398bdb6d8e22ea7b129733c58df6c7d4b79837c14acdb73f0bb24f43b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 17c | 1,323$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 20c | 788.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.3 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 12c | 722.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 698.9$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 464.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 28c | 318.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 292.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 246.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.57 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 237.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 44c | 229.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 68c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 180.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 62c | 178.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 47c | 153.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 16c | 121.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 80c | 94.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 52c | 94.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 13c | 80.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 21c | 74.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 18c | 62.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 60.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…9be9backed Yes | 25c | 58.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 43c | 57.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 47c | 54.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 21c | 51.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 27c | 49.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0d…558cbacked Yes | 66c | 44.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 41.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 39.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 54c | 33.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…afcfbacked Yes | 64c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 32.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 53c | 32.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 31.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…1738backed Yes | 78c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 42c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 74c | 26.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 24.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…650abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 75c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.