MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574ac2dc6160f2a32a9cfef6e41031adcd59cffefde83a2ac197aeb320a066d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 8,605$5,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 4,431$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 1,794$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.12 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 1,498$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 1,489$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 577.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 483$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 447.7$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 403.92$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 182.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 118.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 112.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 89.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 63.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 57.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 57.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 50.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 50.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 47.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 45.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 40.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 40.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 39.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 38.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 31.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 29.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 27.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 27.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 18.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.