Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5830dfc6a8dc66f7d23859987a31e83d5ee87a7ff4d64fa3629efed1c2277786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof TEAM VISION, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed TEAM VISION | 16c | 708.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed TEAM VISION | 21c | 192.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed TEAM VISION | 24c | 139.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed TEAM VISION | 20c | 139$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked TEAM VISION | 13c | 108.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…9c8abacked TEAM VISION | 18c | 97.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…0c84backed TEAM VISION | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked TEAM VISION | 19c | 64.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked TEAM VISION | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfedb…1d74backed Team Spirit | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Spirit | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Team Spirit | 62c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs TEAM VISION (+2.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.