Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e27df3b937a8aa6a78ee3e3163d1d0062bb1181a6fb8f1405f5a870ef76e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TEAM VISIONof Team Spirit, TEAM VISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed TEAM VISION | 46c | 25,435$11,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,664.04 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Spirit | 54c | 23,079$12,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,554.71 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Team Spirit | 34c | 1,766$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 1,506$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.18 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked TEAM VISION | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6033…8a83backed Team Spirit | 52c | 483.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit | 41c | 254.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cf…9ab4backed TEAM VISION | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Team Spirit | 43c | 176.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed TEAM VISION | 45c | 174.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed TEAM VISION | 58c | 100.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed TEAM VISION | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…c3c5backed TEAM VISION | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Team Spirit | 29c | 60.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed TEAM VISION | 55c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked TEAM VISION | 49c | 33.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c02ebacked TEAM VISION | 80c | 32.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…0c52backed TEAM VISION | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs TEAM VISION (+2.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.