Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce0588d19ec96daefeaa063137f0f94e16381881239699eb42bd3283b5a6707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof TEAM VISION, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked TEAM VISION | 37c | 6,599$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.27 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…3c97backed Team Spirit | 63c | 6,313$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.42 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed TEAM VISION | 12c | 2,609$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked TEAM VISION | 18c | 2,479$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 2,220$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.36 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…9c8abacked TEAM VISION | 36c | 1,928$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…2fc6backed Team Spirit | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…f2b5backed Team Spirit | 64c | 1,566$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked TEAM VISION | 40c | 1,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.5 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed TEAM VISION | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Team Spirit | 71c | 1,373$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.43 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed TEAM VISION | 34c | 1,295$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.18 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…1e9fbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 957.26$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…b74dbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 498.8$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed TEAM VISION | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Spirit | 72c | 383.46$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked TEAM VISION | 30c | 290.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…0f9cbacked Team Spirit | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed TEAM VISION | 39c | 253.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a6ecbacked Team Spirit | 64c | 253$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed TEAM VISION | 43c | 233.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cf…9ab4backed TEAM VISION | 18c | 222.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 203.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Team Spirit | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked TEAM VISION | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Spirit | 61c | 197.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Team Spirit | 62c | 196.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…963ebacked Team Spirit | 62c | 162.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 123.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Team Spirit | 76c | 111$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600d…027abacked TEAM VISION | 41c | 98.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked TEAM VISION | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 63.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…bbcbbacked TEAM VISION | 37c | 63.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team Spirit | 64c | 57.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed TEAM VISION | 39c | 48.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TEAM VISION | 23c | 43.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked TEAM VISION | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efc…99e0backed Team Spirit | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Spirit | 74c | 35.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Spirit | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c0…124fbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 34.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Team Spirit | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d77…9b9dbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed TEAM VISION | 39c | 30.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed TEAM VISION | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Team Spirit | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b53…e3fdbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Team Spirit | 80c | 19.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs TEAM VISION (+2.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.