Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49a1a5d5a99fb7acfb12baf22190c0486930ca27c3707beca492da58d7d4ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 67c | 4,433$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.9 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 40c | 3,429$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…7e4dbacked Under | 60c | 2,667$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.07 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 60c | 2,327$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.18 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…969cbacked Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Over | 39c | 1,250$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 55c | 1,150$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.32 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Under | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…1e9fbacked Over | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c8…2313backed Over | 40c | 501.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 36c | 467.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…ffc8backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…5f5abacked Over | 39c | 253$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 39c | 243.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 36c | 238.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 40c | 233.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.79 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Under | 63c | 215.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Under | 65c | 192$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…2542backed Over | 41c | 185.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Under | 64c | 173.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 39c | 169$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…573ebacked Over | 39c | 166$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…b70abacked Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…8137backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Under | 61c | 128$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Over | 40c | 122.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 43c | 112.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 217 | 42.9%93 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…96b3backed Over | 39c | 97.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…8fd8backed Over | 40c | 97.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 64c | 97.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 30c | 92.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 41c | 88.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…79ddbacked Under | 62c | 78.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…4531backed Under | 66c | 76.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +53%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 59c | 64.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Under | 65c | 64.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 40c | 62.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…6371backed Over | 50c | 61.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…5b24backed Over | 47c | 61.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…1e1dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…ae3fbacked Under | 45c | 41.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Over | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b10…2920backed Over | 57c | 39.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 39c | 35.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…d341backed Over | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…088fbacked Under | 47c | 32.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…8f46backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…e0debacked Under | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b53…e3fdbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…bbf8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs TEAM VISION (+2.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.