Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15adf17e62eda45531bd06005c137defa419d77176874b760edc24311c04442f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 23c | 20,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.98 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 22c | 15,410$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.41 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 78c | 11,480$8,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…f2b5backed Over | 77c | 7,546$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Over | 77c | 4,545$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.45 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 79c | 4,000$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 77c | 3,896$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.1 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 77c | 1,566$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.93 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Over | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…9bf6backed Over | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 77c | 855.67$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 22c | 681.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 76c | 633.85$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…7411backed Over | 78c | 633.82$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 20c | 627.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…c63abacked Over | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under | 21c | 588.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c8…2313backed Over | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 22c | 421.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…6371backed Over | 70c | 388.79$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 72c | 370.38$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…3a6bbacked Under | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 22c | 312.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…656dbacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 22c | 292.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Over | 77c | 287.39$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 77c | 240.71$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 22c | 219.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11f…2429backed Under | 22c | 212.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…2f09backed Under | 37c | 211.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 73c | 205.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Under | 24c | 196.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Over | 73c | 168.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 20c | 137.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…24abbacked Over | 80c | 137.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…aa99backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…6dc9backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…068abacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Under | 23c | 119.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Under | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 17c | 108.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 26c | 100.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…21ddbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Under | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…79ddbacked Under | 21c | 77.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Under | 28c | 77.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 409 | 33%135 W · 274 L | -36.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…c3c5backed Over | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 20c | 71.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Over | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 22c | 69.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over | 78c | 69.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…35acbacked Over | 79c | 68.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Over | 77c | 68.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 135 | 51.9%70 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Over | 66c | 66.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 34c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 402 | 42.3%170 W · 232 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 785 | 41.7%327 W · 458 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…fbccbacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…09d5backed Over | 80c | 49.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed Over | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…830ebacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…c314backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b53…e3fdbacked Over | 78c | 27.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…d774backed Over | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…e060backed Over | 77c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…2875backed Over | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913d…02bfbacked Over | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…088fbacked Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…5dbdbacked Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…f164backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs TEAM VISION (+2.5)TEAM VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.