MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58526df83f3c87aa43984f0a328a309d173abdcf78993e26686850dcf2571415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 19c | 97,869$18,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,595.04 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 22c | 13,289$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 6,026$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 1,950$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 1,086$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 995$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 977$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 71c | 961.17$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 739.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 21c | 726.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 41c | 617$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.03 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 43c | 541.85$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.85 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 42c | 179.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 136.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 58c | 102.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 96.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 21c | 96.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 89.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 87.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 23c | 82.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 23c | 71.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 61.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 43c | 59.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 55.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 21c | 54.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 41c | 43.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 40.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 56c | 39.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 65c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Over | 39c | 28.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Over | 45c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Over | 43c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 67c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.