MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x587d81db4fb1969a08dee690c07fdaaa986df7191fc431905cdb091274ba8338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 668.6$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 571.41$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 557.44$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 506.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 506.32$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 327.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 320.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 247.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.57 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 137.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 137.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 133.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 126.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 122.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 121.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 121.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 55.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 49.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 49.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 27.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 19.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.