MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318159a4fed6f0bc6b485b4ea162e477a4f2b37602cb2f81e4865b3f44e3c7fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 13,084$6,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,201.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Over | 52c | 10,943$5,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252.78 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 7,842$4,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 37c | 5,312$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.1 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,823$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 66c | 1,577$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.04 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 50c | 1,576$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.87 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,338$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 1,183$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.52 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 971.54$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 61c | 896$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 805.94$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 634.76$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.95 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 505.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 463.6$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.62 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 50c | 364.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 294.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 223.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 149.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 45c | 125.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 96.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 47c | 95.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 87.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 49c | 77.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…4066backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 76.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 57.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 55c | 54.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…a820backed Over | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 58c | 48.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 63c | 46.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 76c | 46.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 59c | 42.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 42.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 41c | 39.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Over | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 26.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 77c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 59c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Under | 52c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 19.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.