TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9def…6eacbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c1,034$403 inLost-$4031421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants59c739.09$439 inWon+$300.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants59c593.15$350 inWon+$242.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants67c494.67$330 inWon+$165.0111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Milwaukee Brewers47c319.11$150 inLost-$149.9887750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers72c310.71$224 inLost-$223.712,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers32c232.48$75 inLost-$74.618,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked San Francisco Giants28c200$56 inWon+$14421149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked Milwaukee Brewers37c151.52$56 inLost-$56.0611637.9%44 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers60c119.95$72 inLost-$71.975,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants31c99.57$31 inWon+$68.466,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants28c64.29$18 inWon+$46.2979543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers38c51.58$19 inLost-$19.455,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Milwaukee Brewers26c49.99$13 inLost-$131,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants27c49.48$13 inWon+$36.123,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed San Francisco Giants28c46.43$13 inWon+$33.435947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…6d43backed San Francisco Giants45c44.55$20 inWon+$24.56946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers73c44$32 inLost-$32.122,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers58c32.38$19 inLost-$18.911,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants67c30.15$20 inWon+$9.868,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers68c28.19$19 inLost-$19.171,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Milwaukee Brewers68c26.76$18 inLost-$18.270154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers70c23.33$16 inLost-$16.331,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed San Francisco Giants77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.48580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.