TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x012f…6d43backed Milwaukee Brewers2c2,941$59 inLost-$58.826946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Milwaukee Brewers14c469$65 inLost-$65.341,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants46c437.68$202 inWon+$235.884,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Milwaukee Brewers54c405.59$219 inLost-$219.0221242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers6c297.09$19 inLost-$19.071,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers39c282$110 inLost-$110.434,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Milwaukee Brewers32c180$58 inLost-$57.622445.5%102 W · 122 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants76c103.55$79 inWon+$24.358,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants23c102$24 inWon+$78.046,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6de2…d0e5backed Milwaukee Brewers17c89.58$15 inLost-$15.421028.8%9 W · 93 L-31.9wins-0.31per pick40cpaid-82%equal weight22-0.25 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers30c80.81$25 inLost-$24.5612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers45c71.69$32 inLost-$32.2311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a2…abb3backed San Francisco Giants52c50$26 inWon+$24785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+66.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca2…03cfbacked San Francisco Giants74c50$37 inWon+$1320843.3%90 W · 118 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed San Francisco Giants51c35.29$18 inWon+$17.2918151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants47c31$14 inWon+$16.586,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers79c19.05$15 inLost-$15.051,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.