TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,131 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers49c1,038$512 inWon+$525.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers48c859.66$412 inWon+$447.988,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants53c793.4$420 inLost-$419.976,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants47c478.22$225 inLost-$225.148,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers17c233.8$41 inWon+$193.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants59c211.32$124 inLost-$124.292,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants58c210.48$122 inLost-$122.089,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers43c207$88 inWon+$118.991,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…421ebacked Milwaukee Brewers71c140.85$100 inWon+$40.85650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked San Francisco Giants28c104.63$29 inLost-$29.24829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants59c91.79$54 inLost-$54.162,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers28c85.29$24 inWon+$61.25,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants61c83.23$51 inLost-$512,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9af…f4f7backed San Francisco Giants42c73.25$31 inLost-$30.814740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers65c67.3$44 inWon+$23.5711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers74c60$45 inWon+$15.435,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x012f…6d43backed Milwaukee Brewers35c57.66$20 inWon+$37.486946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Milwaukee Brewers60c56.37$34 inWon+$22.6426762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants62c53.99$34 inLost-$33.711,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Milwaukee Brewers77c50.33$39 inWon+$11.5716261.1%99 W · 63 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0874…6277backed Milwaukee Brewers30c47.65$14 inWon+$33.362638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.19per pick20cpaid+112.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Milwaukee Brewers67c47$32 inWon+$15.411,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers54c43.55$23 inWon+$20.141,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants64c40.74$26 inLost-$2645952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants53c36.64$19 inLost-$19.461,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Milwaukee Brewers60c36.43$22 inWon+$14.7345550.3%229 W · 226 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants70c34.84$25 inLost-$24.543,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Milwaukee Brewers44c30.16$13 inWon+$17.011,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Milwaukee Brewers44c29.89$13 inWon+$16.741,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked San Francisco Giants58c29.73$17 inLost-$17.3872655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed San Francisco Giants64c29.72$19 inLost-$19.021,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants35c29$10 inLost-$10.111,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed San Francisco Giants53c21.16$11 inLost-$11.2521055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants63c18.82$12 inLost-$11.892,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fc…617abacked San Francisco Giants73c14$10 inLost-$10.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.