MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6a164765d17eb7cc77d9eff077fcbec33b8efc08a044522ef2118a920dfc8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 58c | 213,297$123,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,700.68 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 100,518$42,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,217.74 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 42c | 100,000$42,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,000 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 58c | 9,616$5,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 7,980$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 42c | 5,012$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.04 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 8c | 2,988$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 44c | 2,339$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.29 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Over | 59c | 1,238$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.72 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 1,081$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 883.37$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.67 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 59c | 551.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.53 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 534.97$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 516.51$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 511.27$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 412.82$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.22 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 399.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 61c | 395$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 42c | 372.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 58c | 302.36$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5762…90eebacked Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…abc9backed Over | 71c | 277.19$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 268.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 59c | 214.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 159.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Over | 58c | 152.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 57c | 144.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 42c | 141.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…4a05backed Over | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Over | 59c | 63.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…da4cbacked Over | 59c | 59.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 42c | 57.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Over | 58c | 51.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Under | 43c | 45.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f1acbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 58c | 42.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 40.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 37.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…50dabacked Over | 58c | 33.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 77c | 32.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…8271backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 58c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 57c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 63c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 75c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 66c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 19.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.