MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dddb1bc95b8c1d5a35255048687566dc88fc66450f70044659029e148580d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Over | 51c | 15,550$7,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,552.51 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 11,808$5,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,726.9 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 4,299$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.82 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 2,077$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 56c | 959.41$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.14 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 757.37$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 53c | 475.62$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.99 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 374.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.29 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 239.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 232.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 54c | 229.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 43c | 228.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 59c | 227$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 179.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 61c | 159.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 149.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 110.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 62c | 91.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 82.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 44c | 79.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 73.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 56c | 61.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…e7c8backed Under | 60c | 59.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 59.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 48c | 59.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 64c | 53.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 55c | 43.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 42.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 75c | 42.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 52c | 39.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 44c | 35.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Over | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 43c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 54c | 28.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Under | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 46c | 25.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Over | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 19.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.