TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,353 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd1f…9136backed No50c1,110$550 inLost-$55013850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes50c746.95$373 inWon+$373.4749650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes50c513$257 inWon+$256.525249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes51c260.1$134 inWon+$126.58,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No49c187$91 inLost-$91.462,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No44c177$78 inLost-$77.8861652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No50c105.01$52 inLost-$52.011,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes53c83.71$44 inWon+$39.7128639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Yes54c74.07$40 inWon+$34.0721944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No46c50$23 inLost-$2329242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No49c46.61$23 inLost-$22.8448653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed Yes51c35.18$18 inWon+$17.181050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No48c27.8$13 inLost-$13.3417652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes54c25.25$14 inWon+$11.5559749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No48c25$12 inLost-$121,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed No46c24.07$11 inLost-$11.0714549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.