Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a9a0dcd5bf336e988b3493738db1a2f4be3e8deb2e1b6f1215d30338bbed35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 27c | 729.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 639.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed No | 65c | 599.38$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 385.61$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 384$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 62c | 322.52$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 315.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 243.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 67c | 223.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 215$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 75c | 203$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 194.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 190.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 165.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 40c | 164.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 163.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 32c | 149.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 68c | 132.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 111.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 59c | 106.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 103.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 36c | 103.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 102.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 99.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 97.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 61c | 94.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 92.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 24c | 92.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 88.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 85.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 85.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 61c | 81.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 76.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 73.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 72.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 62c | 70.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 70c | 66.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 70c | 66.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 64.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 59c | 64.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 63.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 61.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 59.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 59.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 59.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 52c | 58.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 58.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 54.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 51.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed No | 56c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 49.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 47.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 51c | 45.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 61c | 37.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 32c | 37.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 66c | 35.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 63c | 34.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 53c | 32.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked No | 45c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 41c | 25.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 50c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…e318backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.