Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ea470efbb6f933acc59c4a708618115983ac19f3c46583d14ffc617a8b5b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 36c | 553.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 12c | 435.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 11c | 424.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 77c | 419.53$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.41 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 405.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 393.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.55 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 7c | 386.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 333.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 310.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.13 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 287.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 80c | 260.72$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 252.11$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 64c | 247.61$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.23 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 207.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 190$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 58c | 178.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 174.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 156.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 145.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 145.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 39c | 144.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 77c | 128.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 13c | 123.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 120.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 12c | 115.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 115.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 114.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 39c | 104.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 104.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 100.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 79c | 100.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 100.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 97.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 96.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 60c | 83.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 82.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 82.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 78.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 13c | 78.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 77.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 40c | 71.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 60.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 58.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 58.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 58.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 22c | 53.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 52.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 51.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 50.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 28c | 49.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 49.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 23c | 48.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 45.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 32c | 45.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…eefdbacked No | 76c | 43.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 40.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 39.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 54c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 38.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 34.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 25.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 25.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 25.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked No | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 22.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 18.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6730…9634backed No | 75c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.