NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590234dd3b3c1f5c2dc5917b026536555817be3ee5cd70957f3e76a92a32c528

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Clippers, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,609 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf2eb…562dbacked Clippers	52c	21,097$11,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,043.01	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Jazz	48c	10,213$4,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,310.72	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Jazz	50c	7,497$3,734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,763.47	197	47.7%94 W · 103 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	48c	2,883$1,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,513.03	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Jazz	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	489	56.4%276 W · 213 L	+31.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jazz	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	48c	447.26$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.37	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3277…be5fbacked Jazz	50c	392.44$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.22	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Clippers	50c	271$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.5	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd59e…e640backed Jazz	49c	234.59$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.64	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+42%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…2924backed Clippers	50c	70.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Jazz	52c	64.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.12	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9460…97d5backed Jazz	48c	52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.04	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz	50c	34.94$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.47	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	48c	34$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Clippers	52c	30.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cc…c578backed Jazz	50c	26.8$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.4	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1H Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event