NBA · resolved market

Spread: Clippers (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f80438136e173ea7a67cb3955a9452e427cd0da0fad8152dde37612093a221e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Clippersof Clippers, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $181,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $194,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,290 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	48c	69,859$33,839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,838.75	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Clippers	51c	69,164$35,554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,610.61	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers	54c	64,197$34,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,502.62	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers	53c	8,784$4,628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,155.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Clippers	54c	6,944$3,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,194.44	208	56.7%118 W · 90 L	+13.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Jazz	48c	2,684$1,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,281.56	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Jazz	28c	2,565$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.63	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers	56c	2,440$1,374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,066.49	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	56c	2,133$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.66	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Jazz	48c	1,761$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	48c	1,379$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.72	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a3…967fbacked Jazz	50c	1,288$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.81	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Clippers	54c	1,112$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.4	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	46c	920.05$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.1	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Clippers	53c	839.99$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.8	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Jazz	48c	780$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.4	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc78d…7a18backed Clippers	54c	602.26$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.04	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Jazz	48c	488.52$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.59	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz	41c	452.16$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.86	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Jazz	69c	400$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.4	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Clippers	49c	342.88$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.74	389	42.9%167 W · 222 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Clippers	54c	222.22$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.22	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Clippers	46c	218$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.72	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Clippers	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz	50c	195.18$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.59	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Jazz	48c	182.92$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.8	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Jazz	48c	161.66$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.45	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Clippers	48c	136.95$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.84	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Jazz	47c	118.34$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.09	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f32…483dbacked Clippers	53c	113.99$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.99	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	48c	110.65$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Jazz	48c	104.66$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Jazz	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	563	48.5%273 W · 290 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a6…3d19backed Clippers	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Clippers	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…570cbacked Jazz	62c	96.13$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.84	132	40.2%53 W · 79 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e65…701cbacked Clippers	49c	92.57$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.57	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dde…b1aebacked Jazz	49c	84.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.07	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-8.1wins	-0.25per pick	44cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Clippers	79c	63.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	33	69.7%23 W · 10 L	+4.8wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cdf…31e7backed Jazz	48c	60.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	140	54.3%76 W · 64 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Jazz	48c	50.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Jazz	48c	50.54$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Jazz	50c	42.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	139	45.3%63 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Jazz	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	561	54.5%306 W · 255 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4892…27bcbacked Clippers	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	43	69.8%30 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Clippers	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93df…cd6ebacked Jazz	51c	27.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Jazz	55c	26.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	163	54%88 W · 75 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Jazz	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	289	43.3%125 W · 164 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Jazz	48c	23.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Clippers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	97	64.9%63 W · 34 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Clippers (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event