South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5990bcb924402c18e7b5ca8f70f6fa19587fdd5847d76ba32d58f9ad6e0349bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 42,873$32,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,040.92 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 36,267$7,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,928.12 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 80c | 29,220$23,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 24c | 18,769$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.15 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 25c | 11,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.88 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…6277backed Yes | 7c | 6,894$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.57 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 4,068$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.67 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 3,055$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.76 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 2,216$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.54 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 2,100$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 25c | 1,568$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.01 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,398$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 77c | 1,371$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 24c | 1,225$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 25c | 790.6$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 743.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…667fbacked Yes | 17c | 713.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 710$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 552.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 26c | 499$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 21c | 490.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 413$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dac…6b71backed Yes | 28c | 350.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 25c | 315$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 305.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 14c | 255.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Yes | 25c | 192.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 33c | 178$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea80…41afbacked Yes | 25c | 175.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 25c | 161.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 26c | 97.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…a9e7backed Yes | 21c | 85.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…72f2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 69.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 55.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Yes | 23c | 55.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 63c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…252abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-07-18?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-07-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.