Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59cca6573a882a9ca754bc3600383bb87ef646b5d9dbba9d1db466df75b52890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liverpool FCof Manchester United FC, Liverpool FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United FC | 10c | 12,022$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.03 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Liverpool FC | 71c | 11,238$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,237.54 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Manchester United FC | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 8,752$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,918.44 | 205 | 45.4%93 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC | 27c | 7,677$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.59 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Manchester United FC | 9c | 2,737$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 1,635$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.59 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Manchester United FC | 11c | 1,319$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Manchester United FC | 9c | 1,160$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Manchester United FC | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Liverpool FC | 66c | 904.62$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.79 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Manchester United FC | 10c | 867.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 659.94$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC | 15c | 615.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manchester United FC | 27c | 611$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Liverpool FC | 66c | 551$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…776fbacked Manchester United FC | 5c | 388.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Manchester United FC | 9c | 325.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Manchester United FC | 27c | 323$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Liverpool FC | 67c | 297.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Manchester United FC | 35c | 282.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3c8dbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 278.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af2…f92fbacked Manchester United FC | 9c | 219.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Liverpool FC | 67c | 207.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 193.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 178.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Manchester United FC | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5a…8a3fbacked Manchester United FC | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Liverpool FC | 65c | 132.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Liverpool FC | 66c | 132.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Manchester United FC | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Liverpool FC | 65c | 129.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Liverpool FC | 72c | 113.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 101.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Manchester United FC | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Liverpool FC | 67c | 95.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…1d78backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 88.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Liverpool FC | 75c | 78.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…6207backed Liverpool FC | 69c | 72.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Manchester United FC | 35c | 71.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Liverpool FC | 59c | 65.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 65.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Liverpool FC | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Liverpool FC | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…0d0ebacked Manchester United FC | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Liverpool FC | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Manchester United FC | 34c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…5f61backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Manchester United FC | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 29.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…e011backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…8c6cbacked Liverpool FC | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1914…36f9backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Liverpool FC | 66c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liverpool FC | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…4ff3backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Liverpool FC | 66c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.