TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes40c262.79$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.848,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c219.9$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.025,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes55c182.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked No68c177.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7217140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes52c174.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No75c167.82$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2137669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6664…1891backed No62c159.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.681145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c153.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c143.83$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No61c138.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c111.12$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.512,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c110.7$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.741,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes44c100.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5817241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c99.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.981,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No75c97.09$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8325049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes51c95.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c87.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No58c80.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6210966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c72.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.211,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f6…1199backed Yes41c70.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c70.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes40c70.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.071,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c69.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.86,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No60c67.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.765,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No60c65.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.252,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes32c57.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd577…7137backed Yes39c56.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes43c54.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.930565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No50c49.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.61,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No56c48.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.661,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…2155backed No62c48.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes31c48.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes53c45.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3123334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes43c45.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5822932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes50c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.365939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No51c44.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5665353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No61c40.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.812,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c40.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No67c40.03$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0334050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.83262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.616339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes39c39.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c38.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.614,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes40c37.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9655538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes39c37.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5152828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes43c35.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No43c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.381,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3288…b8cebacked No56c33.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.877728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc812…9350backed Yes44c33.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c32.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.812,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…312dbacked No61c32.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.83560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd415…44f6backed No60c31.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.82,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050e…9ac6backed Yes45c29.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.081844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes39c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3115558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No51c27.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7111258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No56c26.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.852,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes42c26.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.278036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes38c26.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87b3…d03bbacked Yes44c26.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…7d50backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252313%3 W · 20 L-5.5wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-71.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No51c24.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No60c24.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ee…eea9backed No60c23.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.455763.2%36 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes54c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4213134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No57c21.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.438325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No62c21.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.072,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c20.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c20.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No60c19.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No65c15.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.512,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.