Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59d5ef1bfa77977ee3968cf99b9122ba77e18f20072a7cca5e30da932cfe150d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 262.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 219.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 55c | 182.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked No | 68c | 177.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 174.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 167.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…1891backed No | 62c | 159.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 153.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 143.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 61c | 138.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 111.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 110.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 44c | 100.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 99.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 97.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 95.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 87.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 58c | 80.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 72.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…1199backed Yes | 41c | 70.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 70.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 70.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 69.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 67.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 65.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 57.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…7137backed Yes | 39c | 56.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 43c | 54.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 49.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 48.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed No | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 53c | 45.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 44.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 40.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 40.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 67c | 40.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 39c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 37.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 56c | 33.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…9350backed Yes | 44c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…312dbacked No | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd415…44f6backed No | 60c | 31.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 45c | 29.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 51c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 26.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…d03bbacked Yes | 44c | 26.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 60c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 57c | 21.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.