TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c673.92$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No3c490.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No5c437.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c355.88$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c288.95$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes66c267.02$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c262.9$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes35c262.51$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.524940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes40c257.94$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.863641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No35c238.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.571,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes50c220.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5917140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes39c217.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c211.52$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes63c198.98$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.982,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c187.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No28c181.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes32c150.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.551,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No68c147.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No66c139.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.041,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c133.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes45c132.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0117553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes75c130$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.974143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c123.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.723,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No26c116.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes38c115.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.31,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c110.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.781,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes45c105.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.381,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes61c101.77$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1122932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c99.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed No60c99.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No36c93.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.131,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes34c89.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3917443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf270…3c46backed Yes39c87.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.433831.6%12 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No26c80.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.241,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No16c78.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1575…ac63backed No65c77.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.381952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c76.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c71.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes45c70.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.691,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c69.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes45c64.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes75c64.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0689661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes80c62.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.681,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6248…27f6backed No66c59.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.213053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c55.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.054,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes33c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c51.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed No60c50.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306045%27 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes38c50.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.853,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No54c49.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9917744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes51c45.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes29c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…eae5backed No22c44.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No61c44.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2522853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No56c43.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.278036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c40.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.021,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes33c40.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6613738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c39.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes31c39.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2527130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c37.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes37c37.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4652828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8609…401ebacked Yes42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.711540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No58c35.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.695752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes44c35.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes37c35.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0681848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes45c33.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6211334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c33.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.925,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes45c33.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0719848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes46c31.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.365543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…0490backed Yes63c31.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.643545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c31.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes34c30.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0982742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes78c29.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3944757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes38c28.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6414954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb51…329bbacked No65c27.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.196426.6%17 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No55c26.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.882,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4d…2725backed No63c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.757138%27 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No63c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x608f…02a8backed Yes79c22.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.732759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No55c21.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8f…832cbacked No56c21.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151080%8 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3de…1751backed No68c21.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes74c21.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No65c20.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.642,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3313…92adbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No58c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No68c19.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.482562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No55c18.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3913134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No71c15.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.