Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a82277f4f86b2e9350a14d468be0b74e1eb12efbc890560943b21ad50e32a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 673.92$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 490.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 5c | 437.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 355.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 288.95$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 267.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 262.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 35c | 262.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 40c | 257.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 238.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 50c | 220.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 217.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 211.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 198.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 187.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 28c | 181.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 150.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 147.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 139.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 133.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 45c | 132.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 123.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 26c | 116.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 115.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 110.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 105.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 61c | 101.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 60c | 99.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 93.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 34c | 89.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 39c | 87.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 80.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 78.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 65c | 77.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 71.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 70.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 69.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 45c | 64.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 75c | 64.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 62.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 66c | 59.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 55.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 51.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 60c | 50.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 51c | 45.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 22c | 44.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 61c | 44.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 56c | 43.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 40.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 33c | 40.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 39.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 39.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 37.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 58c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 35.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 35.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 45c | 33.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 33.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 46c | 31.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 63c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 31.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 34c | 30.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 78c | 29.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 65c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 26.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 79c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked No | 56c | 21.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed No | 68c | 21.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 20.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 55c | 18.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.