TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Astros, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x889e…09e0backed Astros51c20,853$10,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,217.8127948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians48c18,295$8,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,781.621,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Astros52c18,181$9,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,726.8314747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians49c17,480$8,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,565.0941850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Astros52c15,000$7,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,207.1115553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Astros55c5,522$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.8844456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians31c5,239$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians45c4,800$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1601,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Guardians46c4,492$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.4125550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Astros54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9998149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Guardians46c3,680$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.84358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Guardians1c3,629$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.28504%2 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Guardians46c3,382$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.139041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians45c2,793$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.1595850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Guardians48c2,779$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.9297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians9c2,510$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.642,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians46c2,312$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.381,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians48c2,257$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.641,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians48c2,006$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.671,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Astros54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92027953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Guardians49c1,967$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.6733349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Guardians47c1,959$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.8416151.6%83 W · 78 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x343c…741dbacked Guardians46c1,938$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.464744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Astros79c1,722$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.8640547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Astros67c1,721$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.7886751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Guardians24c1,593$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8479740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Guardians20c1,127$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5630928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Guardians46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Astros54c1,026$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.921,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Guardians46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Astros55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4507349.3%36 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians48c891$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.6876456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians36c890$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.868656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a0…1b3dbacked Astros57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.192941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians47c849.01$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.572,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Astros62c806$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.7468769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Guardians7c643.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.262488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians49c584.32$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Astros53c538.94$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.317248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Guardians20c524.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians17c514.69$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.321,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Astros52c504$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.923243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Guardians13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Astros54c459$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1415949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Astros52c430$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2545248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Astros54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18491749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefd…d603backed Guardians46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Guardians49c373.47$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1839245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Guardians3c360$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6b…bfacbacked Astros56c358.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.841973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+44.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Guardians50c344$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17225954.1%140 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Astros59c338.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.653333.3%11 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Guardians48c333$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9143250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Guardians47c314$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9285047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Guardians11c286$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4613021.5%28 W · 102 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Guardians9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221a…1cadbacked Astros55c261.89$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.853148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Guardians47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd39…b24cbacked Guardians63c234.41$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0624…faafbacked Guardians46c218.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.443148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Guardians46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-73.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ba2…c1a0backed Guardians46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-6.2wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-57.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Guardians47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe0…6e30backed Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987135.2%25 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe10e…cfddbacked Guardians8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159824.5%24 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7287…9787backed Guardians9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Astros55c182$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.917348%83 W · 90 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24cb…5921backed Guardians48c178$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.442128.6%6 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Guardians12c177.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2122312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Guardians17c170.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0696133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4206…3187backed Astros54c168.6$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.122860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Guardians49c154$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.467841%32 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Guardians46c128$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4640352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x119e…e353backed Guardians47c124.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.442951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…57c1backed Guardians46c118.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e73…e769backed Astros51c112$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5858…714abacked Guardians49c112$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bed…8a60backed Astros56c110.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.533145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5ca5backed Guardians46c109.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff0…7881backed Guardians47c108.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.132842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacbc…4b92backed Guardians46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Astros54c107.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5320944%92 W · 117 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6350…2e3abacked Guardians47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5cf…e4bcbacked Guardians47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fee…5519backed Guardians46c101.59$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…8e76backed Guardians47c100.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.342661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Guardians49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Astros54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4650447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Guardians45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520448%98 W · 106 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Astros54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4624250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Guardians45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4531145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Astros51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.59550.5%48 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…4b22backed Astros55c97.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325d…515cbacked Astros55c97.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bea…3403backed Guardians47c96.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x287b…647abacked Astros56c96.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.33450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2515…a008backed Astros52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.