Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a01e0ff278a275df6a4a3aa9a42f6ff8eb6fc4177fc485697aed122e52f145b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 48c | 399.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.36 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 331.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 308$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 53c | 234.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 193.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 61c | 158.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 145.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 137.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 123.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 120.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 119$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 106.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 12c | 105.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 105.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 66c | 93.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 88.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 41c | 78.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 33c | 63.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 59.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 59.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 59.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 57.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…becfbacked No | 52c | 55.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 54.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 64c | 53.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 52.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 34c | 50.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 49.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 49.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 48.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 43.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 57c | 40.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 58c | 40.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 39.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 38.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 42c | 37.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 36.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 52c | 36.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 46c | 35.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 32c | 34.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 33.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 30.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 62c | 30.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 29.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 28.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 28.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 37c | 27.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 26.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 39c | 26.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…55e4backed No | 77c | 24.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 20.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 18.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 62c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 15.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 14.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.