Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4228219feaf7afa234098bc48fcfd80f3fbd09fae811fd80ed869fb02ee2e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,904$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 368.53$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 234.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 233.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 44c | 166.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 157.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 133.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 120.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 116.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 52c | 109.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 50c | 104.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 101$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 45c | 79.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 73c | 78.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 76.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 75.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 70.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 69.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 68.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 63.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 73c | 61.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 71c | 60.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 59.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 56.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 55.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 69c | 55.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 54.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 38c | 54.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 53c | 53.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 33c | 53.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 52.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…9d90backed No | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…72e3backed Yes | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 40c | 47.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 46.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 42.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 69c | 42.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 50c | 40.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 37.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 46c | 32.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 32.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 30.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…eddebacked No | 56c | 30.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 38c | 29.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…55d0backed Yes | 47c | 29.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…a7c6backed Yes | 48c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 27.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 27.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 26.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…8f78backed Yes | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 26.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 70c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…55e4backed Yes | 74c | 22.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 59c | 22.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 21.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.