World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a097fc6bd198a9b7c910ebc2979463a2e42e947d5c89b63b8c00639bdf06de2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 8c | 943.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 474.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 15c | 362.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 354.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 330.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 71c | 319.1$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 272.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 249.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 10c | 248.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f4…4647backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…1ce2backed No | 78c | 191.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 187.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 24c | 163.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 151.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 149.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 144.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 19c | 134.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 17c | 120.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 99.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 93.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 77c | 86.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 84.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 19c | 79.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 75.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 16c | 74.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 17c | 74.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 67.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 64.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 61.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 61.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…b24cbacked Yes | 31c | 58.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 30c | 55.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 71c | 42.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 32c | 39.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 79c | 37.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed No | 77c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 33.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 29.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…1746backed No | 70c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 72c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 69c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.