TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes4c10,581$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb20…d921backed Yes0c10,005$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b7…45e5backed Yes0c2,307$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes34c804.4$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.99337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes21c779.53$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.161421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No72c760.14$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.612955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes28c449.79$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa918…9c56backed Yes35c435.19$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+137.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c433.3$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c422.33$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8422355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c413.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No65c397.18$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.584856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No64c387.59$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.277353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes33c331.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No68c300.38$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.944052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…97e1backed Yes8c295.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes34c294.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes9c268.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1912040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes30c259.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3310733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No68c256.6$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.535464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c239$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes31c222.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.872737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No66c219.33$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.443040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c213.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a65…5b95backed Yes50c208.42$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…1ce2backed Yes39c206.3$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No63c204.94$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.165121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes19c203.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.776533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes31c202.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.791258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No79c200.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.855945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No74c197.63$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5312249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No70c197.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.24358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes15c182.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes16c170$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.491250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes20c167$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.735341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes50c160.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No68c160.14$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.514564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes31c159.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c153.08$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5115356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4a…a5a5backed No66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes27c149.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No73c139.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.645250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes15c139.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.587020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c138.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2811039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes34c120$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7239414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes25c111.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c103.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c100.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3714842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe587…dc56backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.253360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes15c99.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No72c96.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes24c95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1210629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c94.47$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4718158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes33c91.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No62c91.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.963174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes22c90.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No72c90.61$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5218348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes18c87.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No70c86.43$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes46c85.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No77c84.93$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.396462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes34c84.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.712646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c84.36$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes37c81.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No78c81.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8713155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No62c80.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.375066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No78c80.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.94450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf3…ca4abacked No49c79.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No55c79.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes27c75.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.655837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c75.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes39c74.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes41c73.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes28c73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed No70c71.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.89944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes29c68.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes15c65.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5e…9fa5backed Yes28c65.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes23c64.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7411053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes36c63.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.852454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes27c60.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.966346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c59.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.717582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No75c55.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.666445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes20c52.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.424932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No78c51.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c50.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed No79c50.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.523551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No63c50.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.654566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No69c47.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.915345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes24c45.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.