Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0ffb84c399f6cd95d7109d2dcce707ba9fb496e8dc844deb009d857de43088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.04 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 77c | 4,489$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.57 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 3,985$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.78 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 77c | 3,360$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,933$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.26 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 22c | 1,600$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Yes | 22c | 1,468$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,195$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 1,194$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 1,046$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 31c | 1,020$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.3 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 870.05$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 24c | 787.87$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 720$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 529.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 22c | 490$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 473.64$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 432.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed Yes | 14c | 401.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 230.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 34c | 214.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 200.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 200.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 186$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 23c | 147.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 23c | 137.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 29c | 133.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 78c | 122.63$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 75c | 112.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 112.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Yes | 22c | 107.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 59c | 100.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 95.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…2f94backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 75c | 72.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…a427backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 25c | 60.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 31c | 56.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 77c | 54.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 23c | 46.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 36c | 43.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…27d2backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked No | 79c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 55c | 25.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 76c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 77c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 76c | 20.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 79c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 59c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 79c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.