UFC · resolved market
UFC 318 Parlay – Holloway + Holland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1d896350fd40710994e47adb7baca60048e5803525c406be0e2f903a95d817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Yes | 43c | 4,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 57c | 2,074$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.63 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 55c | 2,031$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.43 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 54c | 1,028$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.77 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 53c | 455.91$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 45c | 318.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 294.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed Yes | 48c | 271.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked No | 58c | 234$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…3742backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…50acbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…bb5abacked Yes | 47c | 216.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked No | 53c | 187.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 168$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed No | 55c | 153.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 59c | 144.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed No | 57c | 127.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eca…8191backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 42c | 100.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Yes | 50c | 99.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…c7c8backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Yes | 46c | 87.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Yes | 48c | 84.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 37c | 61.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…75b6backed Yes | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77a…5248backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…e1cdbacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…4bf3backed Yes | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.