MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b74af7cc7bb3973007c9d93825f0fc58df16ac3092bda1261f1cc8178016e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 9,105$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 5,165$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.27 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 52c | 3,984$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 59c | 3,667$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.03 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 3,480$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.96 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,951$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.46 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469d…1a62backed Under | 65c | 2,300$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 1,731$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.77 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4188…b517backed Under | 6c | 1,665$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 1,045$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 546.66$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 13c | 391.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 310.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 292.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 275$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 261.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 238.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 198$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 51c | 174.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 159.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 156.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 136.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 136.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 54c | 127.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…c083backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 113.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 96.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 54c | 94.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 49c | 93.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…bfaabacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Over | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…bb9bbacked Over | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 71c | 73.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 69.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0419…f4f3backed Under | 67c | 63.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba16…f7d8backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 53c | 48.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 44.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 46c | 38.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 63c | 33.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 48c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 29.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 39c | 28.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 28.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 63c | 27.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 52c | 21.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.