MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac28913ec7a7ad2d6cdaa99638f2dad67ff2e95ee943a0b5117bb2d71459a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 2,361$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.03 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,107$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 57c | 1,700$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 1,555$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.75 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 79c | 1,420$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 71c | 1,383$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.94 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 56c | 1,363$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.91 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 1,261$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.48 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 1,017$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 56c | 991.07$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.07 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 35c | 823$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.05 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 44c | 785.72$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.72 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 44c | 768.43$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.11 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 44c | 684.82$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.32 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 43c | 568.08$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 65c | 509.5$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 396$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 21c | 342.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 56c | 215$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 192.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 186.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 19c | 185.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 185.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 78c | 175.31$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 151.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 20c | 150.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 109.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 94.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 90.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 87.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 79.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 56c | 79.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Over | 32c | 78.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0419…f4f3backed Over | 26c | 77.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 29c | 76.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 67.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 57.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 68c | 47.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 35c | 46.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 36c | 33.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 30.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 42c | 29.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 35c | 29.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 29.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 38c | 26.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 60c | 22.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 64c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 67c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Under | 77c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.